Tom Nash
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March 22 Zoom Call Highlights
🕑 Added 2021-03-24 13:44:57 +0000 UTCHi there! Thank you so much for those who attended the last zoom call we are 100 on that call and I just really love having a talk with all of you. For those who don't have the chance to attend, please see below the highlights:
- The post crisis growth that we've seen before, it's like a slingshot once you release the economy it's very documented effect of the economy bounces. When that happens it's inevitable. You cannot stop inflation, when the market goes ballistic like this even if you have dovish FED chair like we do right now probably the most dovish I've seen in my lifetime. It's impossible to not raise interest rates. I am not saying in 6 months but probably within in the next 18 months there's gonna be interest rates and a significant one. They will have no choice because the growth of the economy plus the amount of money they printed is just gonna be unstoppable otherwise we're gonna be paying 55 dollars for a bigmac. Once interest rates goes up you know what's gonna happen. The higher the interest rates the more the damage it's gonna be to the companies that have massive disruptive product weighing the future because then you bring back future massive EBITDA all the way to 2021. The higher the interest rates the bigger the discount rates and then you'll get less valuation.
-Lot of Biotech companies will take massive hit because they are counting on the future disruption and also a lot of tech companies will take a hit like Tesla and Palantir. But does that mean that you should sell your entire tech? No because we invest in companies and not in stocks. We invest in the company we love and we have actual anticipation of potential growth in next 3-5 years however, unless you re-balance your portfolio.
-Re-balance your portfolio right now before prices go up and the interest rates as well. And we have to do it at loss. Right now we have to put 20-30% of our portfolios in recovery stock. When I say recovery stock I don't mean that we have to buy utilities, airlines, energy or hospitality because they'll gonna take you wild to bounce back and they are really over priced.
-I think cybersecurity is probably the next big industry to invest in
Please feel free to send us your questions. Have a nice day!
Comments
Steven Hjd
Hey Tom. Everyone is talking about inflation like it's the boogieman. Don't you think that any inflation that exists is already priced into the market ?
Erik Black
Tom could you do video on what recovery stocks would be best to rotate into or types?
Marco Nierop
Or just ride out the red days .. if they ever come... It may happen, but it has not happened yet! In Europe QE has been going on for over a decade now and they still cant get inflation up to 2%, so I think things have changed a bit with ow everything works these days. ARK also does not believe inflation will get much higher, because there are many deflationary things happening with those disruptive companies.. Like Tesla driving costs down of their batteries and with that of EV's. Robotaxi's will slash costs of transportation and energy getting cheaper and cheaper with the roll out of more and more renewable sources and battery storage... Solar panels getting cheaper, wind turbines getting bigger and therefore cheaper per installed Mwh. But also in health care costs of developing new therapeutics get cheaper with new technologies like CRISPR. So investing in 'rotation' stocks right now, as some kind of hedge against growth tech stocks that 'might' go down, seem rather premature to me. I just buy, hold and DO NOTHING!
Natalie Davis
If you don't mean airline, cruises, utilities for recovery stocks, what areas should we be looking at for recovery stocks?
Sandi
Thanks for the highlights, couldn’t make the call so this is great.
