The Long Investor
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$SPY - CONTRARIAN VIEW -
🕑 Added 2025-05-06 16:33:50 +0000 UTCI have not uploaded this in awhile so it is best to keep people updated on this.
We can see clearly that the price action has met resistance at the 50 WMA, this is what we have been expecting and it was expected on the regular $SPY chart and this Contrarian chart.
I want to be clear: there is no rejection at this level yet, only a test of resistance.
The FED will announce their decision on Interest Rates tomorrow, my personal view is that they should do nothing and buy themselves another month until Tariff Deals are announced.
This will likely cause a reaction from Trump, so we will see how the market reacts to this.
If the FED does rate cut and inflation goes higher then this will be a bad call...and this is a real possibility if the tariff embargo continues.
It is not an easy situation for the Fed right now....so this level of uncertainty may be difficult for the market to comprehend.
Paul Tudor Jones declared today that he believes the market will make a lower low next.....this does align with our normal $SPY chart, so this is something to consider....and PTJ is a macro expert in my opinion
BUT
Right now, both charts are a possibility, as there is no rejection here yet and if the price action can break above the 50 WMA at $566 then I believe it can run as high as the ATH level at $612.
$PLTR's chart should be remembered here....people were convinced that it would break and hold higher above its previous ATH but the chart was not showing that.
All I need to see is confirmation, I consider macro influences and I respect them but it makes no difference to me whether or not we get this chart play out or the regular one.
This is the sweet spot, being ready for both eventualities and I believe many members are.
Comments
dmumf47
$435 here we come
Giorgio
The 200WMA is creeping up to your invalidation line…😏 might have another layer of defense there.
