The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-05-04 19:33:13 +0000 UTCAs I shared under the $QQQ and $BTC charts this evening, all three positions have held exactly at their respective resistance levels to end the week.
Like I said under their charts too, this is not a rejection, this is simply a test of an important resistance level.
The FED will report their Interest Rate decision this Weds and 2pm EST, so there may be some volatility early next week as the market digests how it feels it will go.
Trump obviously wants Powell to Cut but Powell has said that the economic uncertainty caused by the Tariff War is making his life difficult and he needs more time....I believe this is logical.
A tariff war will drive inflation higher as supply chains tighten and salaries increase, this is basic economics 101....but when you CUT rates on top of this, this will also increase inflation because the aim of cutting rates is to stimulate the economy....Powell's job is to keep inflation down (not let it go negative) but aim to keep it at 2%.
If he cuts rates and the tariff war intensifies then inflation WILL rise again, which he has already explained will likely happen and indicated that inflation is due to rise from the data he can see.
Powell is again stuck in a difficult situation.
I believe again the best decision is not to do anything and keep the rates unchanged and that gives him another month until the US and the rest of the world can make some deals....right now they have been slow....a lot of public talking by the US but no concrete deals, in 1 months time you would expect deals to be made.
On the chart:
If Interest Rates are cut then the price action will likely break higher and a run up to the 0.9 Fib at $600 EXACTLY can happen next.
Wave B is still valid until a higher high is made.
For me, chasing right now makes no sense and those who wish to add should continue to focus on positions that has completed Wave C.
Until important trade deals are made, this is the dominant scenario count.
ECONOMIC DATA FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:
🏛️ Federal Reserve Policy Decision
Wednesday, May 7: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 PM ET. The consensus expectation is that the Fed will maintain the current target range of 4.25%–4.50%, despite political pressure from President Trump to lower rates. This decision follows a contraction in Q1 GDP and ongoing inflation concerns linked to recent tariffs.
Post-Decision Remarks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference following the announcement. Investors will closely analyze his comments for insights into future monetary policy directions.
📊 Key Economic Data Releases
Monday, May 5:
9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Services PMI (April)
10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April)
Tuesday, May 6:
8:30 AM ET: U.S. Trade Balance (March)
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March)
Thursday, May 8:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending May 2)
8:30 AM ET: Labor Productivity and Unit Labor Costs (Q1 Preliminary)
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March)
Friday, May 9:
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
💼 Corporate Earnings Highlights
Several major companies are set to report earnings this week, which could influence market sentiment: (FULL EARNINGS TABLE WAS SHARED YESTERDAY ON THE MAIN PAGE)
Monday, May 5: Ford Motor Company (F), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), $HIMS.
Tuesday, May 6: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Wednesday, May 7: Uber Technologies (UBER), Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Later in the Week: Coinbase (COIN), Shopify (SHOP), Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), DoorDash (DASH), Carvana (CVNA), Electronic Arts (EA)
🧠 Market Context
The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is particularly significant amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Despite a contraction in Q1 GDP, the labor market remains resilient, with April showing stronger-than-expected job growth. However, inflation pressures persist, partly due to recent tariffs. President Trump's public criticism of Fed Chair Powell adds another layer of complexity, raising concerns about the central bank's independence.
Comments
G4Golf
https://www.patreon.com/posts/spy-top-20-127595818
TheHoneyBadger
I did read the info you dropped on a post that wave B has to retrace at least 90%, which from $481.80 is $596.78. From your teachings, I gathered we have to at least hit $597 before we see the rejection and start of wave c if I am not mistaken.
Vojtěch Šimeček
Am I seeing correctly 0.9 fib for the first time? I don’t recall seeing it from you and probably anyone else
