The Long Investor
patreon
$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-27 19:54:08 +0000 UTC$SPY and the $QQQ are back in sync again and the price action bouncing at $508 to a new higher high reaffirms our belief that the trend continues to be to the upside to at least Wave B at the 50 WMA at $566 over the coming weeks.
Big variables right now of course will be Earnings, ongoing trade talks, Jolts, Payroll and PCE....which are all out this week.
So the level I believe that needs to hold this week is $508 again and if the bulls can continue to hold here then we can complete a move up to the 50 WMA at $566 at the very least.
There is clearly a lot of uncertainty in the market right now and I would not be buying anything right now that is not in Wave C or looking like it has completed Wave C on individual charts.
The Mega Caps have already bounced well, so if you have not added already, like we did with $AMZN, then I suggest waiting for the Wave B test next, bulls will need to convert the 50 WMA to support....bears want a rejection at this level, to decide the next direction.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:
📅 U.S. Economic Calendar: April 28 – May 2, 2025
Monday, April 28
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (April)
Provides insight into manufacturing activity in Texas.
Tuesday, April 29
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (February)
Measures changes in residential real estate prices.CB Consumer Confidence Index (April)
Assesses consumer sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions.JOLTS Job Openings (March)
Indicates labor demand by measuring job vacancies
Wednesday, April 30
ADP Employment Change (April)
Estimates private sector employment growth.Q1 GDP (Advance Estimate)
Initial reading on economic growth; consensus is a slowdown to 0.4% from 2.4% in Q4 2024.Core PCE Prices (Q1)
Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.Chicago PMI (April)
Reflects business conditions in the Chicago region.Pending Home Sales (March)
Tracks contract signings for home purchases.
Thursday, May 1
Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending April 26)
Measures new unemployment claims; consensus at 224K.ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
Gauges manufacturing sector health; expected to remain below 50, indicating contraction.
Friday, May 2
Non-Farm Payrolls (April)
Key employment indicator; consensus at 129K new jobs.Unemployment Rate (April)
Expected to hold steady at 4.2%.Average Hourly Earnings (April)
Monitors wage inflation.Factory Orders (March)
Provides data on new orders for manufactured goods.
💼 Corporate Earnings Highlights
This week is pivotal for corporate earnings, featuring reports from major companies across various sectors:
Technology: Apple (Thursday), Amazon (Thursday), Microsoft (Wednesday), Meta Platforms (Wednesday)
Financials: Visa, Mastercard, PayPal (Tuesday)
Healthcare: Pfizer, AstraZeneca (Tuesday); Eli Lilly, Amgen (Thursday)
Energy: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell (Friday)
Consumer Goods: Coca-Cola (Tuesday), McDonald's (Thursday), Starbucks (Tuesday)
Industrials: Caterpillar (Wednesday), General Motors (Thursday), UPS (Tuesday)
These earnings reports will provide insights into how companies are navigating current economic challenges, including trade tensions and inflationary pressures.
⚠️ Market Context
Investors are closely monitoring
Trade Policies: President Trump's recent tariffs, particularly the 25% levy on car parts effective this week, are influencing market dynamics.
Federal Reserve Stance: With the upcoming Fed meeting on May 6–7, economic indicators released this week could impact interest rate decisions.
Global Economic Indicators: Data from the Eurozone and emerging markets will also play a role in shaping investor sentiment.
Comments
Chris H
I think that everything is going to move based on tariff news and fed’s position. The rest is going to be kind of colourings into the picture. Even guidance from the big boys.
Gareth Neary
https://www.patreon.com/posts/lesson-regular-126706867?utm_medium=clipboard_copy&utm_source=copyLink&utm_campaign=postshare_creator&utm_content=join_link
G4Golf
If we assume that GOOGL is following SPY, might be a clue in his thinking in the GOOGL post a bit further down Scott?
G4Golf
Hi Cap, I have seen this 90% retrace possibility mentioned a couple of times, and see on the chart now. Could you please add some colour? I have not come across this as an EW fib target before so intrigued to learn more.
Scott Williams
With this being in ABC currently, would SPY be something you’d consider trimming at B?
