The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-20 20:08:00 +0000 UTC$SPY and $QQQ chart since the bounce on the 7th of April have been very similar, both failing to make a higher high on the 14th of April and now showing some further weakness.
I have shared the downside level that needs to be held on the $QQQ chart in order to complete the 5 waves higher and on this chart above, the $508 level needs to hold in order to complete 5 waves higher.
If $508 is not held then a lower low can be made here next and this is a concern for the $SPY because it needed to hold at $481 on the 7th of April and it did, anything lower than this level and 2021 high is infringed upon, so a lower low rules out the Contrarian View.
I think the Mega Caps Earnings reports will play a big roll here
If they issue guidances and share that they have concerns due to tariffs then it will be difficult to see how the market turns bullish and a lower low will likely be made
If they issue No guidance then the market may not be happy with even more uncertainty.
If they issue guidance with no concerns (would be odd not to address the tariff concerns) then this may cause confusion.
Mega Caps are likely stuck in a tricky situation right now because of this dilemma.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD:
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Monday, April 21
Market Holiday: Stock markets in Europe, including Ireland, are closed for Easter Monday.
U.S. Data:
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (March): Provides insight into future economic activity. โ
๐ Tuesday, April 22
U.S. Data:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April): Measures manufacturing activity in the Fifth Federal Reserve District. โ
๐ Wednesday, April 23
Global Flash PMIs (April):
Preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index data for manufacturing and services sectors from major economies, including the U.S., Eurozone, UK, Germany, and France. These indicators provide early insights into economic conditions.
U.S. Data:
New Home Sales (March): Indicates housing market trends and consumer demand.
Federal Reserve Beige Book: A report on current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts
๐ Thursday, April 24
U.S. Data:
Durable Goods Orders (March): Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of hard goods.
Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending April 19): Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.
Existing Home Sales (March): Provides data on the number of previously constructed homes sold during the month.
๐ Friday, April 25
U.S. Data:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (April, Final): Assesses consumer confidence in the economy.
Baker Hughes Rig Count: Tracks the number of active drilling rigs, indicating energy sector activity. โ
