The Long Investor
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$SPY CONTRARIAN VIEW - TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-15 11:36:51 +0000 UTCSharing this again because we do have members in this group who believe we are in this count and I am not going to dispute them on this because I can see their reasoning.....the main difference between the two views is where Wave 1 started....many believe that the charts reset after the 2020 Covid Crash and many believe that this is one large cycle which began since the 2009 low after the Great Financial Crash.
Both have strong arguments.
What I recommend is planning for the worst case scenario and that is by observing how the price action handles the 50 WMA which is at $563 now in the white circle.
A rejection at this level and a lower low will be made next, flipping this level to SUPPORT, not just breaking above it, will mean that the Contrarian View here can play out.....and I believe a lot of this will rest on the US's ability to end Tariffs quickly.
I hope everyone is clear on this.
Comments
G4Golf
Well explained! EW Wave Counting is an art, not a science (sometimes)!
Tim
It looks tempting to chase wave B with some stops and see what happens.
Thane
Hi Cap, in your opinion, is this a minority opinion? My view is just because COVID happened by itself doesnβt mean the longer pattern was invalidated. COVID was simply a catalyst event within the larger trend. Is my thinking right to be contrarian to this contrarian view?
Dante
Thank you! My "problem" is with wave 4 from summer 2024. My opinion this can't be wave four. π
