The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-13 19:42:44 +0000 UTCRight now we have two $SPY charts, this chart above and the Contrarian View chart that I have been sharing for the last 2 weeks and I believe everyone is clear on the difference between the two.
As I have explained all evening, let's prepare for the worst case scenario, which is the chart above.
If there is a rejection at the 50 WMA which is at the 0.618 Fib at $564, then we will know that Wave B is complete and expect Wave C next.
As long as this Tariff War is ongoing, it is impossible for us to eliminate this ABC correction possibility
There has been movement and back tracking from the US and this should allow the Wave B bounce at the very least
BUT
If this Tariff War wages on then we must expect Wave B to reject and Wave C will be next.
The Tariff War will influence earnings reports and guidance in this earnings season may cause a lot of uncertainty.
Any positions I have added over the last few weeks are either low risk and already completed their own ABC correction or $AMZN where I will watch closely for a Wave B rejection.
All my other positions I am holding comfortably and only $GOOG and $NVDA I will trim if all 3 reject at their Wave B rejection levels.
RSI here is also BELOW its 30 level so this too is oversold and although the price action has bounced to the amber 0.5 Fib already at $548, we need to see at least 3 waves and we want to see the 50 WMA tested from below aty $564.
This has been complex and a lot to take on.....but the clear message is, hold positions if you bought what I have and let's observe the bounce and see if there is a rejection and I will clearly share with the group if I feel there is a rejection for Wave B.
Economic Calendar for the Week ahead:
π Monday, April 14
Survey of Consumer Expectations (11:00 AM ET)
Provides insights into consumer inflation expectations and spending behavior.βTreasury Auctions
13-week and 26-week bill auctions scheduled.
π Tuesday, April 15
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET)
Measures manufacturing activity in New York State.βImport and Export Price Indexes (8:30 AM ET)
Tracks changes in the prices of imported and exported goods.Treasury Auctions
4-week, 8-week, and 17-week bill auctions scheduled.
π Wednesday, April 16
Retail Sales (March) (8:30 AM ET)
Key indicator of consumer spending trends.βIndustrial Production & Capacity Utilization (9:15 AM ET)
Assesses the output of factories, mines, and utilities.βBusiness Inventories (10:00 AM ET)
Reflects inventory levels across various sectors.βCrude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET)
Monitors weekly changes in oil stockpiles.β
π Thursday, April 17
Housing Starts & Building Permits (8:30 AM ET)
Provides data on new residential construction activity.βkPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET)
Gauges manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region.βInitial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Reports the number of new unemployment insurance claims.βNatural Gas Storage Report (10:30 AM ET)
Details weekly changes in natural gas inventories.β
π Friday, April 18
Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) (10:00 AM ET)
Measures consumer confidence in economic conditions.βBaker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET)
Tracks the number of active U.S. drilling rigs.β
Comments
G4Golf
Good stuff Cap, will appreciate the guidance getting closer to "B-day"
Dom
Appreciate it cap
