The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-05 12:33:18 +0000 UTCI have just been reviewing the price action of 2007 - 2009 compared to what we are seeing this year to gauge how things may move
TWEET:
Solid white price action is the 2025 performance Superimposed over the 2007-2009 Great Financial Crash
We are starting to see some similarities already
1. Price losing the 200 Day MA and rejecting from below and making a lower low.
2. RSI's are identical too.
3. 50 Day MA is moving down to the 200 Day MA for a Death Cross.
However, this years price action is moving down a lot faster, accelerated by Trumps Tariffs which the market clearly finds very uncertain.
But Wave B did retest the 200 Day MA for a second time in 2008, but it did take 7 months to happen.
So I do expect the 2025 price action to retest the 200 Day MA as well for Wave B.
A rejection here and de-risking is needed.
What the market does not need right now, is another catalyst, like a Lehmans collapse, this would be catastrophic.
There is enough uncertainty alone with Trumps aggressive Tariffs, anything else on top of this will be too much for the market, as we saw in 2008.
Comments
Pacus
Thank you very much Cap for your great work. We will hope for the best but must be prepared for the worst. We’ll be more attentive than ever to your messages these days in case it becomes necessary to reduce our exposure to the market 🤗🤗🤗
DC
Back then QE was not a tool that the Fed was as comfortable using like they are now. Between inflation and a meltdown like that, Fed will tackle the meltdown …
Federico Salerno
Definitely not and he is certainly surrounded by the best advisors… but he is not a Buffet or a Simons, his career as entrepeneur has been a rollercoaster, I don’t trust him blindly just to say
KL
I agree with this, only, there's a lot of underlying stuff that is...not great. Check out JustDario on X, European banks, bad, Japan, bad, there's a couple of USA banks...
Vojtěch Šimeček
Depends if we get rejected from the 200DMA (Wave B target) or if we reclaim and go higher.
Dante
For me, this is a controlled download of the market by Trump. Don't think he's an idiot, do you? that he doesn't know what he's doing?
Regular_Joe
There always min. 2 try to recapture 200DMA, right? Exccept 2020 covid crash. I Think right now we are closer to 2020, because the political things are the main reson of potenial bear market/massiv seloff.
Scott Williams
Yes and no. The economy isn’t in a good spot even without the tariffs. Government spending has been propping it up and something had to give.
Wlad
Hi Cap! How do we know if the scenario is this one or the one mentioned in the contrarian view?
Carl
Could a confirmed recession in the next months another catalyst?
StevieV22
The difference here is this is self inflicted and can be reversed with a single tweet. Makes it difficult to compare to previous crashes.
Vojtěch Šimeček
Absolutely, why do you think I wander around on my Saturday
Abdul R.
The SPY at 404 seems to be the 0.786 equavalent of today meaning wave C could end between 449-404 The SPY at 404 again would be crazy!
LDeeG
Doesn’t feel like a job when you love what you do! Crazy to think we could just be starting to correct 🫠 will definitely take advantage of Wave B
Gareth Neary
I know ha
Vojtěch Šimeček
You have no chill Cap
