The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-03 09:43:40 +0000 UTCYesterday we spoke about the Bull and Bear Case options depends on how aggressive Trumps announcements will be and quite clearly he went in aggressive, a total of +54% Tariffs on China is absurd.
Especially when his method of calculation has been revealed to be misleading and quite frankly bizarre.
Nevertheless, we must play the cards we are dealt.
I said the price would come down to the $550 0.236 Fib if Trump went nuclear and the price is just slightly below this level, and just short of making a lower low from the 31st of March.
Holding below the $550 level and we can expect a further trend down to the Wave A level I believe at $512.
At this level I would expect Wave A to complete.
It would take something incredible for this to turn around today, a relief yes is possible but from early reports, the EU and China are not in a position to roll over right now, a trade dispute is likely going to take its toll which will put pressure on the market.
Comments
Lewis
SPY is on the wave A in the correction phase. B is the leg up and your ‘out’ if you need to. Check out the LC and cross reference with caps commentary, the visuals helped me understand https://www.patreon.com/posts/124359418?utm_campaign=postshare_fan
jp
Hi Cap. So we are in the early stages of a Bear market? I was thinking one more leg up before the bear market.
Trevor Sweetnam
The idea that you would calculate a tariff % based on a trade deficit is just blowing my mind this morning.
