The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-02 10:44:50 +0000 UTCOk the plan for the day:
So far we have a hold on the 0.236 Fib at $550, this tells us that the market has identified the first large corrective wave fib support level, meaning they are aware that the corrective wave is possible.
BEAR CASE: A harsher than expected Tariff announcement and a retest of the $550 level is likely going to happen again and if this level is lost and a lower low is made again below $547, then we must expect a drop down to the 0.38 Fib at $512, which I believe will be the end of Wave A of a market correction, I don't expect this to happen today or this week but it will signal a trend in this direction.
BULL CASE: Tariffs are exactly what the market has been anticipating; so with no big surprises and countries reacting with cooperation and talks initiate immediately, then the market could consider this a fair policy.
If this is the case, then a retest of the 200 Day MA from below again is possible next to $574, which is also the 0.38 amber fib resistance level.
It is next to impossible for the bull case reaction to be processed in one day, it will take days for countries to respond and possibly counter and then we must consider Trumps response then to these measures.
Overall:
There is a lot of uncertainty
Uncertainty about the percentage Trump will announce and which countries are involved
Uncertainty about what the reciprocal countries have planned in terms of a counter
Uncertainty over how Trump will therefore react to these countermeasures
And Uncertainty on how the 10 YR and $DXY will behave to this news.
All of this considered, you can not expect the market to be calm, so we must expect wild swings while the information is being filtered through.
Let's ride the waves, wait for the dust to settle and then take action, there is very little benefit from pre-empting any moves now.
Comments
Rob
So you mean after the Standard cycle Wave 2 pull back Comes a standart cycle Wave 3 downward move ? And does the corrective wave structure have also 5 cycles like the impulsive waves structure?
Vojtěch Šimeček
Relieving, thank you
Gareth Neary
Good question, my scenario above is not the nuclear 1929 potential scenario, I don't believe that is going to play out because valuations are not that stretched, so I believe this ABC pull back above is a standard cycle Wave 2 pull back
Vojtěch Šimeček
Cap do you see this ABC correction as a subwave of the large $SPY correction scenario? Meaning wave C would be just a subwave of Wave A aligning with 0.382 fib at $413?
