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$SPY - CONTRARIAN VIEW -
🕑 Added 2025-04-09 20:59:55 +0000 UTCWe will never know what forces were at play to stop the price within $1 from invalidating the Contrarian View, but it happened and what a sight it was.
Trump absolutely needed to send that message out at that exact time today in order to save the market, it was looking in trouble and with CPI tomorrow, there was a real concern that $480 would have been infringed upon.
But the price bounced a whopping +10.5% after this postponement announcement and there is a massive cushion now to $480.
So here is the view now:
The 50 WMA is at $566, flipping this level to support and this Contrarian View can happen. Getting back above the 50 WMA is a bullish signal and a higher high for the market can easily happen.
Rejecting at the 50 WMA which is aligning with the $562.97 at the 0.618 Amber Fib and our regular count of this being in an ABC count is then confirmed.
We needed $480 to be infringed upon to rule out the Contrarian View and give us confirmation but the market works in peculiar ways.
On this chart:
The Wave 2 in 2022 held exactly on the 0.5 Fib at $349
Now in a potential Wave 4, the price held exactly on the 0.5 Fib at $481.
A powerful lesson on the importance of Fibonacci levels.
Either way, we expected a bounce was coming and it was powerful.
CPI tomorrow and I do expect some cooling down after that monster day.
Comments
Issac
I can't wait to load up once wave 4 is done and we go back up for wave 5
Florian
Now the count is correct. On the long term $SPY chart you have labeled the wave from 2020-2022 as wave 3 which in my opinion can not be possibile if you consider the count from the beginning of 1993.(which you don't provide here but should obviously be..)
MuaSer
Hey Cap, if the contrarian scenario plays out... will the long-awaited crash happen afterward? Will the opportunity to make cash for generations still be in place?
Chris H
What a week. This was an emotional rollercoaster.
Dhairya Ratti
Cap with 3 waves down and wave B bounce is it going to be XYZ ?
Julien
If wave four is confirmed, will you buy more aggressively? I am 50% cash and don't really want to be on the sidelines if we have a meltdown. @TheLongInvestor
Jay
We are all living in an experiment. The saying ‘Show me the chart, I’ll tell you the news!’
Dante
I think .. market makers (money makers) rule the world :D
Boons
As i learned here : the chart makes the news , not the other way around.
Dante
Perfect! I hope you will look at this scenario more often. And I would really appreciate it if you could post a diagram on it as well. Thank you!
sahilpreet Singh
Does it not amaze you how a bullish news comes just where you draw the lines. You can call it technicals, I call it Black magic. 🪄
