The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-09 10:48:37 +0000 UTCThe fade yesterday has certainly sent some shockwaves in the market, what looked like a positive reaction at the start of the session to an oversold market and positions, quickly turned sour as a constant flow of negative news headlines came out between the US and China when the +104% Tariffs came into effect.
Price dropped as low as $489 too.
Just so everyone is up to date:
A drop below $480 and the Contrarian view, where the price action can make another all time high and not complete its ABC correction next is ruled out for me.
So if there is a drop below $480, I still expect this count to be Wave A still and a test of the 200 WMA is where I believe Wave A will complete at $466, none of this has changed on my chart.
If the price holds above $480, then there is still a possibility that there is both the ABC count and another all time high possible (the Contrarian view)
For me, I would prefer to see confirmation, so we can plan accordingly.
A dip below $480 and I will still buy for a Wave B bounce but we will expect a Wave C pull back next, with an expectation that there will be a rejection at the 50 WMA at $562.
Time is ticking here for the US and China to make a deal
The US 10 YR has risen and I believe China is driving this.....this could put pressure on Trump to make a deal, China will as always want to make a deal.
CPI and PPI Data is still to report this week, so the market is on a knife edge....very little will be needed to drop the market below $480.
Comments
Gareth Neary
Thank you Taylor, appreciate it
Gareth Neary
any infringement at all under $480.
Taylor D
Agreed. Cap this was one of the most clear commentaries you've ever written. Really appreciate how explicit you were on what different price levels mean for what's next. Thank you!
Peter Hannoush
When you say "go below".. You mean that the price would have to close under those numbers? Or just wick below? You clarification is appreciated.
Julian
oh boy, to me it looks that we'll see 460 today easily, *unless* we have a FED cut or a deal announced.
Dante
Super thank you. Now I understand!
Gareth Neary
A higher high can happen if we are in Wave 4 now But it is very uncommon for Wave B to have a higher high before going lower to complete Wave C and I would never plan for that Only once in the last year do I recall planning for this and this was with $BA and it was brought on by a series of black swan events in the form of plane crashes This can happen with the market and Trump but its not common
Dante
Correct me if I'm wrong, but we could be in an ABC correction, but wave B could make a higher high? Or does this only happen in wave 4? Can an ABC correction after wave 5 - wave B make a higher high?
MuaSer
clear plan! thank you!
