The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-04-06 19:56:26 +0000 UTC$SPY chart and $QQQ chart are very similar, we can see that both price actions are moving to the 200 WMA and in this case it is at $466, which is an -8% drop from here, whereas it is -9% on the $QQQ chart
Same commentary here as it is on the $QQQ chart, I have added in the nuclear armageddon possibility by way of the red Fib levels, which align with the GFC 2009 Low and the high of Feb this year.
This would mean it has taken 18 years to complete this cycle which is on the longer side of cycles.....but 2020 I believe delayed this due to the QE program from the FED.
Right now it is still too early to confirm this possibility and I believe support will come on the 200 WMA or above
It must be noted that if the price action drops to the 200 WMA below $480 then the $SPY Contrarian chart I shared can not be valid, as the pulled back would infringe upon the top of the 2021 high.
A hold anywhere between now and the 200 WMA at $466 and Wave A can be complete for me and we get a bounce back up to the 50 WMA, which also aligns with our amber rejection level on this chart
This is also what we saw in 2008 too
A drop to the 200 WMA, followed by a bounce to the 50 WMA, followed by a rejection and then a further decline....so we are all over this and will continue to be.
CPI, PPI, Tariff talks and Earnings Reports are out this week
It is likely not going to be an easy week again, there is too many variables at play here and the market will struggle to find its feet
But an end to the Trump Tariffs will be a very welcomed announcement, before earnings preferably, otherwise I suspect companies will be guiding down on earnings.
Economic Calendar for the Week ahead:
Monday, April 7:
10:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks.
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit data for February.
Tuesday, April 8:
6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March.
8:00 AM ET: San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly speaks.
Wednesday, April 9:
10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories for February.
11:00 AM ET: Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin speaks.
2:00 PM ET: Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting released.
Thursday, April 10:
8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5.
8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March.
10:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman testifies before the Senate.
10:00 AM ET: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid speaks
12:00 PM ET: Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker speaks.
12:00 PM ET: Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee speaks.
2:00 PM ET: Monthly U.S. Federal Budget for March.
Friday, April 11:
8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for March.
10:00 AM ET: Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April.
10:00 AM ET: St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem speaks.
11:00 AM ET: New York Federal Reserve President John Williams speaks.
Comments
Dante
I think the best strategy now is waiting. Let's see wave B and after wave B we will make strategy. This is my opinion.
P.L.C.
If majority of tariffs are resolved or DJT folds, this is going to be a V shaped recovery and it’ll too late to get in at the lows. It seems like waiting too long to get in could be a bad decision. Do you recommend DCA your way down starting tomm, or wait?
