The Long Investor
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$QQQ TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-03-30 18:03:57 +0000 UTCIf you were looking at a chart for the first time and you only knew about the 50 and 200 Day MA and price action, you could tell without a shadow of doubt that the price action has kissed the 200 Day MA from below and harshly rejected at this level from Thursday onwards.
The only lifeline I see right now is that a lower low has not been made yet which is at $466.44.
A rejection of the 200 Day MA from below, followed by a lower low confirms the downward trend and the rejection
In order to break out of this trend, a catalyst would be needed
Trump has said that the 2nd of April will be his judgement day in terms of his tariff policies coming into effect, he may believe that countries will back down and give into his demands by then.....if I were the leader of these countries, I would not be backing down, considering the US market is not in favour of these tariff wars, the longer these countries hold off, the harder it will be for Trump to have the support of the public.
But if he does get what he has demanded, then this is a positive catalyst and this could buck the trend and we will see another retest of the 200 Day MA from below.
And historically speaking, there is typically a second retest of this 200 Day MA before any further declines, with the exception of the 2020 Covid Crash, which caught the market by surprise.
So best case scenario this week:
Trump either wins the tariff wars by way of concessions from receiving countries or he cancels the tariffs or delays them further, the market bounces back to the 200 Day MA
The worst case scenario:
The deadline is met, countries do not back down and the trade war escalates further, the market will likely not react well to this and there is a drop down to the blue line over the next few weeks to $408.
Comments
Willy G
Thanks
Gareth Neary
i think so too
Josh G
There will be some very attractive buying opportunities if other countries stand firm against Trump's tariffs
