The Long Investor
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$SPY TOP 20
🕑 Added 2025-03-13 20:33:40 +0000 UTCBack to our regular daily $SPY chart now.
The large 0.236 White Fib got tested today ar $550, this also marked -10% decline since the potential top at $613.
A -10% pull back is officially called a correction, what is most remarkable about this is that it only 4 weeks to complete....so this has been quite fast, harsh and uncomfortable for many.
Because when the market declines -10%, it means that many vulnerable positions have declined -40% to -50% too, typically positions that were overvalued or had weaker fundamentals.
Ideally we need a support level here to offer some relief next
The 50 Day MA, the 200 Day MA and the 50 Weekly MA have all be lost now....so this is weakness, this is clear.
And what's different now is that CPI or PPI did not help relieve the market, which typically happens.....so we are likely seeing the market react to Trumps policies which often get announced spontaneously throughout the day and get flipped back and forth very quickly too.
Trumps approach appears to be, shoot first and then ask questions....so there is a shock and awe approach and then he negotiates....this may have worked in a boardroom and behind closed doors.....but it is a different animal now when the market reacts to your every word
Something I hope Trump becomes aware of very quickly (unless he deliberately wants to correct the market further)
If $550 can offer support going into tomorrow and next week then we could see a retest of the 200 Day MA next at $572....AND THIS TELLS US EVERYTHING WE NEED TO KNOW
I have said this multiple times now
A RETEST WILL TELL US:
IF THERE IS A REJECTION AT THE 200 DAY MA
OR
IF THE 200 DAY MA CAN GET FLIPPED BACK TO SUPPORT.
A REJECTION AND THE MARKET IS IN WAVE A FOR ME (THE ABC CORRECTION)
A RECAPTURE OF THE 200 DAY MA THEN YES THE MELT UP LEVEL IS STILL IN PLAY.
None of this is new information, many people will still ask for clarification on this in the chat groups and honestly it is exhausting, so any further questions will simply be referred back to this chart and commentary.
I will continue to do updates like this and guide you every day, so you are fully aware of where the market is
I understand that in spite of us calling this possibility happening early, it still does not make things easier at times.
When a retest happens, we will have further clarification.
Comments
Bram Alleman
This guidance is a gift, this is guidance you can find nowhere else in the world. You can pay bankers 20/2 for info that is never as clear as this info is. For only $40'ish per month... Very very very grateful for this.
Fedor
Very clear instructions Cap. Much appreciated as this help me prepare mentally. Come what may, we are prepared 🙏
Paolo Spyrou
Question: In the wave numbering, i would consider Wave 3 in March 2024 at $520, and Wave 5 at Jan 2025 at $610. If this is wrong can anyone suggest why?
Issac
Thanks Cap🫡
Nick Numbers
Thank you for the updated analysis. I joined your team recently so the info is super helpful. Also, much respect to you for having the patience to navigate the General Chat. It's overwhelming to say the least.
Giorgio
Thanks for the insight cap. Lets be real tho, Trump totally knows how his words effect the market. This isn’t his first term after all haha. If we go by the assumption he knows his impact, we know why he would wanna tank the market in the beginning of his term. The fact the market is only going by his word concerns me, because it is my assumption he wants the market down anyway…so he can “uplift” out of a “recession”
Sid
Thank you for being patient with us and teaching and guiding us along with Vojtech, CAP!!!❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️ Am not weaker hands anymore. The only thing I did not prepare myself was OSCR having -18% this week. But I prepared myself today mentally to be strong, referred to your commentary all again and gained confidence!!! Am not worried anymore!!!❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️
Gareth Neary
I would be extremely surprised if this did not happen......typically the 50 WMA or the 200 Day MA is retested.....it is a signal to the market
Kat
Thank you 🙏
Matt
if it further declines, when can we rule out that no retest from below is even happening?
