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$SPY - 2008 CRASH EXPLAINED -
🕑 Added 2025-03-12 19:49:58 +0000 UTCIt is a good idea to see what happened in 2008 with the Great Financial Crash to understand what is happening right now.....and we can clearly see how important the 50 and 200 Weekly MA's played a part in guiding the market.
Follow points 1 through to 4.
This all happened before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which many believed was the trigger in Sept '08, but we can see that the 50 WMA was first lost in November 2007.
The decline then lasted until the second week in March (this week) in 2009.
So large crashes take some time to be confirmed and complete and it is not going to be comfortable throughout.
Today we are in November 2007, as of right now, all we have lost is the 50 WMA.
We must be patient now.
Comments
Daniel
really like adding the comments on the chart.
Magopool
50 WMA was lost in 2018, 2020, 2022 but 200 WMA always reacted well as support (violated during covid but never acted as resistance). Let's hope we are yet in a similar care as in 2023, were 50 WMA become support very quickly.
Joel (ASTS Fan Club)
Superb chart and explanation of the 2008 crash. Will be interesting to see how big of a final dip we get for this correction if it goes ahead
Phuze562
I can’t imagine if a crash like that happens that any stock would be safe even if it didn’t follow the market like AMD
Mk Yee
Always good not to be over leverage and have spare cash on the side line. Learned a lot from the China 3-4 years BEAR market. Money Management is important. Thanks for sharing and get us prepared for the storm.
Green Waves
True, but we are not asking for handholding in every step, it’s all charts and predictions so just asking for some numbers. No need to be rude. Not every one is as “ experienced “ as you in the group. Some of them could be like me, new to investing, trying to build life and savings. So please be mindful of such people too.
Nigel
It's odd how a group of adults need such handholding but it's absolutely awful the thought of losing half your worth. I'm only REALLY down on hims and Oscar and the daily handholding from TLI is actually great. Adult or not, seeing your new investments down 15% in a fortnight sucks. A year long correction will not be for the weak at heart!
Green Waves
Please respond, much appreciated
kenv
Ah yes, those were fun days. I bought a lot of precious metals and avoided stocks, for way too long. Didn’t lose my job until 2012, at the very bottom. Four years later I had a new career and bought a new house. Moral: never give up. Shit happens along the way.
Green Waves
Voj/Cap, Apologize for my inability to understand this commentary, can you please explain in numbers for spy, does this mean we might retested SPY to 580-600 and then drop to new lows ? Please explain with some numbers so people like me understands 😊
raja sekhar
You mean be prepared to lost -50%. Many people are new here like me who already lost -35% . Should we sell or need to wait to lost another 20%?
Vojtěch Šimeček
Yes
ACE
Can you do a chart for 2018 during the trade war?
Jacob Tolley
Can you show us/me how to make that chart? I"m messing around on Investing.com and putting in 200wma and 50wma but its not looking like that. Or is that lesson somewhere on here?
MuaSer
which MA CAP? Simply?
Nadim
So if it lost the 50 day moving average how high % can stocks go before the crash happens?
Kad
Super clear chart, thanks a lot!
Matt C
Don’t try to time the crash/correction, be prepared for it but building a strong cash position with safe havens
DA
Thanks Cap.. Question, if the 50 WMA end up getting recaptured, will you have a differing opinion about the possible market correction?
Luc
Very appreciated, thanks a lot Gar !
Nigel
And would the bit of green immediately before l brothers crashing have been a new impulse wave 1 but for L brothers being a black Swan event?
Issac
Read the end of his writing. He said at this point all we have lost is the 50 ma. We must be patient. It is right there at the end lol.
Nigel
Would e.w.t have shown that March 2009 was the end of the crash? What is on the chart around that time to signal a new impulse wave 12345 please?
David O
Wow. Just seeing now how extended today's market is past the 200 weekly MA compared to 2008.
NR15
Great lesson and commentary, thanks!
Dante
It's too early.
Arjun Balakrishnan
Thank you Cap! Appreciate your inputs much
Robert Kalenderov
Are you saying such crash is coming?
Sam R
I want to sell everything and seat on my hands for the next 2 years then. But hard to sell when I'm already -20-30%
Divyam Kaushik
so we should be ready to sell it all before the crash happens, would wait for you to alert us! thanks for this post
