The Long Investor
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$HIMS
🕑 Added 2025-02-25 10:38:14 +0000 UTCEarnings are now out, they double beat but the market did not like it.
To sum up very quickly: They have guided almost +50% higher for the end of 2025, which includes not taking into account any sales of GLP-1 Semaglutide after Q1, which accounted for around 30% of their revenue....so the Street is simply saying: We don't believe you.
Which is not a big surprise considering they have been trying to bring the share price down for the last 6 months.
Revenue has increased: +95% YoY
FCF has increased: +452% YoY
Subscribers have increased: +45% YoY
Not only are these figures good, they are the outstanding.
Now it up to management to hit their guide for the year.
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So where does that leave us now?
Wave 4 has now pulled back, we always want to see support on the 0.38 Fib ($50), the lower 0.5 Fib at $43 is no issue but below this level and we need to make sure that the top of Wave 1 does not become infringed, which is at $34.
Right now, the 0.618 Fib at $36 and the 50 Day MA are support levels which protect the share price from infringing upon $34.
Until this happens, Wave 4 is still active.
Worst Case Scenario:
If Wave 4 becomes invalid, then we are already in the ABC correction and Wave A would be very steep in this case so Wave B is next, a bounce up to between $56 - $60.
So here is the possibility:
We find support between $36 - $43 for Wave 4 and we bounce next for Wave 5 up to $97.
OR
Wave A completes and we bounce for Wave B next.
Both scenarios mean there will be a bounce next, as both Wave 4 and Wave A have pulled back excessively, what we need is support first.
For me:
As soon as I see support found, I am adding again, there was nothing in that report that concerned me and I was very impressed with it, their growth, revenue, subscribers, FCF and expansion into new TAMs all point in one direction, that this company could 10 X from here.
Comments
Scooby-Doo
I am genuinely curious and new to Elliott wave, what if we do not give the bounce? I saw you post that in either scenario we will get a bounce. If we just slow bleed does Elliott Wave dictate something else?
Fasih Malik
What would be the approximate timeline on the 10x projection?
Tom E.
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