The Long Investor posts
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$NIO TOP 20
$NIO is sitting on the final fib support level at 0.887 at $4 this week.The 0.78 Fib held for 2 months but was never able to make a series of higher highs and higher lows so it could not start a new impulse wave and kept getting rejected at the 50 and 200 Day MA, so the price went lower. So we need to see this happen now on the 0.887 Fib or unfortunately the bottom red line would then come into play.We've held long enough here, I think we can...
$LULU
No changes to the chart here and we can see a clear rejection trying to make a higher highA test of the 50 Day MA next looks good here at $360 but I would like to see this level not held and we get a stronger pull back to below the 0.5 Fib where the 200 Day MA is waiting at $315.At $315 I believe $LULU is very attractive to add again.
$AAPL TOP 20
$AAPL is concern right now, it is not following the market this week and has retested the 50 Day MA from below which is also the ascending triangle top line and the blue resistance level....it has also made a lower low now at $229.$MSFT is also showing a concern too but $AAPLs drop from $260 to $229 without finding support is something we need to pay attention to.If the bulls don't recapture the 50 Day MA asap, then we must expect a test of t...
$TJX - RC -
Wave 3 hit the 1.618 Fib target perfectly and has since pulled backThe ideal scenario here is a 3 wave pull back to at least the 0.38 Fib to offer more value before moving higher to the Wave 5 target at the 2.618 Fib level at $170However, watch for support at the 0.236 Fib, where the 200 Day MA is at now, this could be enough for a Wave 4 pull back to complete at.
$LVMHF TOP 10
The 200 WMA behaves like a magnet at all times and even more so when the price is below this MA.....value hunters will always prefer to take the risk on positions when they are below their 200 WMA....especially when they are sector leaders.Which makes $LVMHF a prime target for safe money.$LVMHF has moved +8% in Europe this morning and I expect this to move the US position tooA higher high next above $694 and this can move back up to the 200 WMA a...
$AAL
$AAL is still running strong and I still think we are in Subwave 1 of Wave 3, I don't think we have experienced a Subwave 2 pull back yet and this will likely pull back to in between the 50 and 200 Day MA and ideally back to the wedge breakout level at $15My Wave 3 target is still the same at the 1.618 Fib at $37 but I would like to add again.....but we don't chase herePrice has already run from $9 to $18 now without a pull back, so waiti...
$META
Very little concerns with $META's set up, price continues to use the First Target support level with the assistance of the 50 Day MA at $600.Once this level is held then I believe $META can move higher to the Second Target next at $664$AMZN, $GOOG and $META give me no concerns right now about moving higher......once $NVDA holds above $141, I will think the same for $NVDA too.
$ASML
$ASML is already up +4% in the PM now after a strong earnings from $TSM with no guidance concerns.Since the 1st of Jan where I added $ASML to our Top 10 list for 2025, the price has jumped from $696 to $755 in the PM today But crucially, we have a move in an impulse wave which is far more important.Structure > price action: at all times....structure tells us that the price can go higher, intraday price action tells us very little.The Wave 3 targe...
$HIMS
From my last post, I said we should feel comfortable once the 50 Day MA is converted to support....and although yesterdays price action was wild, the price rallied into the close and comfortably finished above the 50 Day MAI would like to see a retest of the 50 Day MA at $27 to solidify support and then we can expect a higher high next above $28.80Yesterday we got a +6% day, so usually there is some play acting from traders after a run like this....
$TSM - EARNINGS REPORT TODAY -
$TSM reported a strong earnings, in spite of the EPS miss, their YoY growth is up there with some of the best performing positions in the market...and we have a strong bounce on the 50 Day MA as a result of this earnings.$TSM just needs a higher high now above $222 and holders can expect the Wave 5 target to complete at $246....which also aligns with $AMZN's Wave 5 target.$TSM has set a strong tone for the Semi sector in this years earnings s...
$NVDA
It's important we follow the movements of $NVDA, it holds the key to the $QQQ and $SPY, it would be difficult for the market to Melt Up without the help of $NVDA....as it influences across the Semi and Ai related sector.The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is moving very well, not as aggressive as $HIMS own IH&S pattern but moving in the right direction.PM has brought the price up to $138 which is just short of the 50 Day MA at $139Breaking...
HSI
No changes to our chart but it is important to observe the bullish move here since holding suport on the 200 Day MA between the 0.78 Fib and the 0.618 Fib level range.Big test next will be flipping the 50 Day MA to support next and I feel the HSI will then have the all clear to move back up to the blue line at 22,717 and we will be in Wave 3.So just one more test to go and our ADRs could start to wake up.Hold strong.
$DXY
$DXY hit some resistance at $110 this week which is also the historical yellow resistance line, which is what the market needed to see in order to move higher.The US 10 YR also let off some steam too and the market really enjoyed this and rallied yesterday.Best case scenario next would be a move back to the 50 Day MA at $107, where the 50 Day MA is and losing this support level too....price could then drop down to the 200 Day MA at $105 and the m...
$OKLO
$OKLO does enjoy wild swings but the overall structure and projection remains to the upside.I like the 50 Day MA retest and bounce, which was also on the 0.618 Fib support level too.A hold now above the 0.5 Fib at $24.54 can allow the price action to go higher once again and this time to the Second Target at $35.
$XRP
I really like the Wave 4 pull back to the 0.38 Fib at $1.97, there was 3 tests of this level and then the price used the 50 Day MA to propel higher, price has now bounced strong over the last few days too.Wave 5 is next as there has been a higher high in here too.Some resistance at $3.31 but a flip of this level to support and $XRP can go to the 1 Fib extension at $4.36.
$BTC TOP 20
$BTC has gone from a bear channel to a bull channel but the only concern with this is that it is also painting a Head and Shoulders pattern right now tooSo there are a number of mixed messages but saying that, when the price is above the 50 and 200 Day MA and back up to $100k again, I believe the bulls are still in the driving seat here.A break above $100K would also mean a break above the bull channel, so holding here and $109k is next for me.Ab...
$ABNB TOP 20
Strong argument to suggest that the pull back is now complete as the price bounces on the 0.5 Fib at $129 and is looking set to test the 50 Day MA next at $134.Ultimately the breakout out of the channel and the 200 Day MA at $138 will confirm the reversal and $ABNB would be into Wave 3 too and start moving towards ATH levels againThe Buy Zone on this chart has been spot on.
$GOOG TOP 20
$GOOG like $AMZN is offering a +10% gain here once it stays above the $193 level as we have discussed at length now.I am in both and happy with my position but there will be members who will want to take advantage if the market melts upI have exposure with $AMZN, $GOOG and $NVDA and I still believe these three are best positioned to benefit from a market rally.
$TSLA TOP 20
$TSLA is showing that its Wave 4 pull back could be complete here.A hold above the $414 blue support line would confirm it for meThis would allow $TSLA to move higher to complete Wave 5 at the 2.618 Fib at $648 possiblyA 3 wave pull back from the Wave 3 top is now visible and we do have a higher low in
$BLDE
Strong movements over the last 3 days but we are reminded at all times to focus on support levels when we are testedAnd a retest of the 200 Day MA was harsh but it held very well and also on the 0.78 Fib and the price is already back up to $4 now.We want this level flipped to support next however and this will allow $BLDE to move up to the First Target next.
$AMZN TOP 20
$AMZN continues to be a pillar of strength for our portfolio and has rarely put a foot wrong over the last 2 years and consistently gave us opportunities to add by clearly respecting its support/resistance levels....and $220 was no different.What we want to see next is a breakout of this bullish flag at $226 so then the Melt Up target comes into play at $245.Very happy to continue holding here.
$HIMS
Nice +5% bounce so far today and the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is playing out nicely hereWe also have a clean breakout from the descending wedge and the price is above the 50 Day MA now too at $27.We are very used to wild swings from $HIMS so lets not expect this to run crazy without pulling back, a hold above the 50 Day MA this week is enough for me to confirm that the trend continues to be to the upside.
$ASTS - WATCHLIST -
I think $ASTS is primed to reverse to the upside again but it needs to find support soon.It is dropping into the sweet spot now between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib levels, where the 200 Day MA has been waiting.So a hold here between $16 - $20 and I believe the next move is back up to ATH's again and can even go beyond $39Wait for support but a small position here at least would make sense.
$COMP - JUST REPORTED EARNINGS -
Earnings:Compass COMPsaid Wednesday it now expects Q4 revenue to be in the range of $1.36 billion to $1.39 billion, compared with its previous forecast of $1.23 billion to $1.33 billion.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $1.30 billion.For full-year 2024, the real estate brokerage firm now expects revenue to be between $5.61 billion and $5.64 billion, versus its prior outlook of $5.47 billion to $5.57 billion.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect $...
$BE - WATCHLIST -
Also caught in our morning scan.Pulling back very very nicely to the 0.38 Fib for a standard Wave 4 pull back and has the assistance of the 50 Day MA as support too above $21.20So a hold here and Wave 5 is next up to $35.We can see how strong $OXY and Oil looks right now too, $BE will likely benefit here too.
$GRAB - WATCHLIST -
Going through my morning scan and have come across $GRABs set up again.Price broke out of the ascending triangle in November and ran straight up to the Second Target, price could not hold above this level and is now pulling back nicely.A retest of the blue support line at $4.04 would be another buy signal to catch the reversal again back up to the Second Target at $5.50This is certainly worth watching closely for a hold at $4
$MNSO - WATCHLIST -
We are getting the pull back now for $MNSO after a clean breakout out of this channel.So a pull back to the 50 Day MA just above the breakout level and holding at $21, would offer a buy signal and a reversal to the top blue line at $35.This set up is very attractive right now....just needs to hold the support level.
$SOXL
$SOXL is a 3 X Bullish Semi ETF and it has had a difficult time since August and has not followed the market higherThat being said the consolidation sideways is still holding in this triangle, it is clear that a break down to the 0.78 Fib or even lower is a possibility, as the bottom of the triangle has been tested multiple times since November.But the longer the price can hold in this triangle and a positive earnings season, then Wave C could be...
$SOLUSD
There is no denying how good this setup looks right now.Holding on the 0.618 Fib, above the triangle and on the 200 Day MA....price has also bounced very well since this confluence level tooVery similar set up to $ETH right nowThis is not somewhere you should be considering selling right now but leaning towards addingThe one (big) concern is how $BTC and the market behave when CPI is outBut like my $ETH commentary, the same applies here for $SOL....
$RLX - WATCHLIST -
What I can't rule out right now is that this bounce is Wave B of Wave 4, so we must still be open to the possibility that there is one more pull back to the $2.11 level or the 0.38 Fib at $2.03Irregardless, I still like this impulse structure, I do have two buys in and I believe a run up to the First Target for Wave 5 is the dominant scenario next at $2.80.
